Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 29.790737 33.150145 36.995034 41.784378 47.683621 54.844389 64.413207
2025-06-29 24.589948 28.706680 33.832244 40.892478 50.743046 64.682754 87.447040
2025-07-06 22.362461 27.155276 33.565218 43.243044 58.530192 84.207120 138.824843
2025-07-13 19.961996 24.861692 31.731268 42.788969 61.967138 99.168012 202.570618
2025-07-20 18.362397 23.362632 30.663535 43.111287 66.719857 120.058350 330.660432
2025-07-27 17.126960 22.181525 29.820034 43.520195 71.769462 146.555464 627.479052
2025-08-03 16.027451 21.049380 28.849507 43.435578 75.776974 175.569908 1486.876896
2025-08-10 15.006200 19.917493 27.707563 42.760392 78.190489 203.845245 6094.021870
2025-08-17 14.265497 19.141285 27.045543 42.861351 82.640551 250.210235 NaN
2025-08-24 13.559484 18.352254 26.259455 42.541927 85.893795 301.469841 NaN
2025-08-31 12.895987 17.575773 25.406695 41.917198 88.061604 356.850567 NaN
2025-09-07 12.328229 16.911694 24.684692 41.448476 90.610597 432.148745 NaN
2025-09-14 11.827596 16.330741 24.070884 41.154508 93.868096 547.065861 NaN
2025-09-21 11.281819 15.640432 23.195552 40.117674 94.098026 637.995522 NaN
2025-09-28 11.160517 15.654350 23.637252 42.315203 108.390335 1382.711021 NaN
2025-10-05 10.755178 15.155233 23.047799 41.843222 111.325882 2110.071170 NaN
2025-10-12 10.461986 14.832008 22.772693 42.139050 118.285895 5252.665766 NaN
2025-10-19 10.199709 14.546397 22.545785 42.526324 126.315972 66074.580003 NaN
2025-10-26 9.912890 14.201028 22.169351 42.442012 131.970971 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 9.596109 13.786418 21.621002 41.790669 133.969830 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.365093 13.514045 21.345924 41.887367 141.131861 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.115462 13.196105 20.953069 41.579519 145.557451 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 8.857663 12.852226 20.483547 40.977625 147.579306 NaN NaN